Friday, October 23, 2009

How to Filter false breakouts

To trade in the Fx market is no kid's play.It demands a detailed analysis of the price trends and the market reactions to the same.Basically,any beginner trader would need to know some trading strategies.Breakout trading strategies play an important role in technical analysis in forex trading.

A Breakout is defined as the fluctuation of the stock price beyond the 'resistance' or the 'support' trend lines.when trading decisions largely depend on these breakout,we often tend to withness false breakout(often referred as "fakeouts"by the traders).false breakout largely results in reversals,unlike real breakout where the stock price move on to the next level after the breakout.

So how can a trader figure out if the breakout is real or fake?while analysis plays a major stand here,it's also the wisdom of the trader that matters.one should know that when the prices stay in the first level of the trend lines,a lateral trend exist for sometime,which is termed as "flat".if the stock price surges up,it breakout the resistance line.If it slopes downward,it breakout the support line.The market is bullish when the breakout is on the resistance line and bearish when it is on the support line.If the breakout is real at the support line,the market turns to "bearish".But,if the breakout is false,itgoes back to the "flat"trend.

When a trader sees a false breakout scenerio,he can choose to quit the trade.alternatively the trader can choose to trade in the  opposite direction of the trend.He may choose to go bullish when it's a false breakout at the resistance line and the bearish if the false breakout is at the support line.

To understand a false breakout,a trader must strongly understand what a real breakout is.also,he should be able to withness minor reversal changes that the price may show during a false breakout movement.It is more advisable to go with the direction of the trend.Many trading decisions go well with these principle the trend always follows a straight direction,either bullish or bearish.After the breakout,till the currency shows a reversal the breakout is understood as a real one.when the currency trend shows sign of temporary halt or retraction,it may be sensed as a fake breakout.

Also,one may note that first breakout often have lesser trading volumes.A real breakout shows a huge change in prices upwards or downwards,but a false breakout can show little change in the prices.also,the change in the prices may not be justify by change in the market indices.While newbies in the market may not like false breakouts,trade masters like it.Real breakout see high trade volumes when the price moves towards the trend lines.But a false breakout may see lesser volumes.Thus,Breakouts are a good analytical tool for a trader to grab big opportunity in the market.

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